Exhibit 697 ยท Peer-reviewed article
Testing Inferences about American Politics: A Review of the 'Oligarchy' Result
average Americans have received their preferred policy outcome roughly as often as elites have when the two groups have disagreed with each other.
Reproduces Gilens and Page Table 3 using the authors' AMOS input diagram and replication data, then simulates. With the enforced 50th/90th correlation of .78, a true median-income coefficient of about 0.4 is estimated as essentially zero in over 20 percent of trials; at lower correlations the problem disappears. Descriptive reanalysis of the same dataset: in 185 cases where the two income groups' majorities are on opposite sides, the median-income side gets its preferred outcome 47 percent of the time; at 80 percent-plus support for change, change is enacted 47 percent of the time for median-income support and 52 percent for elites; when neither the rich nor the average favor change, change still occurs 23 percent of the time. Bashir states that the 'oligarchy' label comes from journalistic accounts, not Gilens and Page, and that his review does not show the wealthy and business lack advantages.
- Source
- Omar S. Bashir, Research & Politics 2(4), October-December 2015
- Date
- October-December 2015
- Quoted from
- Abstract, p. 1
- Grade
- Peer-reviewed
- Document
- https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015608896
- Accessed
- 2026-11-09
- Cited by
- Findings citing this exhibit