The Lacuna Project

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Exhibit 1195

When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World

Exhibit 1195 ยท Book (participant-observation field study)

When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World

The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before.

Field study of a small group that predicted a flood on 21 December. States five conditions under which disconfirmed belief is held with more fervor: deep conviction tied to action, irrevocable commitment, specific falsifiable content, recognized disconfirmation, and social support.

Source
Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken and Stanley Schachter (University of Minnesota Press)
Date
1956
Quoted from
Chapter I, "Unfulfilled Prophecies and Disappointed Messiahs", p. 3
Grade
Peer-reviewed
Document
https://archive.org/details/when.prophecy.fails
Accessed
2026-11-10
Cited by
Findings citing this exhibit
Note
Full text read in the Internet Archive scan (djvu text). Grade peer: university-press monograph reporting a field study; it is not a peer-reviewed journal article. The 1957 A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance is access-restricted on archive.org and was not read.

Cited by

No published finding cites this exhibit.