Exhibit 1212 ยท Journal article (formal model)
Sparks and prairie fires: a theory of unanticipated political revolution
Here is an explanation, which hinges on the observation that people who come to dislike their government are apt to hide their desire for change as long as the opposition seems weak.
Model in which people who dislike a regime hide that preference while the opposition seems weak. Public opinion can then shift abruptly after a small, visible rise in opposition, so the collapse of a regime that looked unshakeable is not forecast by observed opinion.
- Source
- Timur Kuran, Public Choice 61(1): 41-74
- Date
- 1989
- Quoted from
- Abstract, p. 41
- Grade
- Peer-reviewed
- Document
- https://sites.duke.edu/timurkuran/files/2016/10/sparks-and-prairie-fires.original.pdf
- Accessed
- 2026-11-10
- Cited by
- Findings citing this exhibit
- Note
- Read in the JSTOR scan hosted by the author on his Duke site; OCR text lacks spaces, so the quote was checked with whitespace ignored. The 1995 book Private Truths, Public Lies is restricted on archive.org and was not read.