The Lacuna Project

lacuna (n.) a gap in a record where something should be

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Exhibit 150

Trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates in early-onset and older-onset age groups in the United States, 2010–2019

Exhibit 150 · Registry analysis

Trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates in early-onset and older-onset age groups in the United States, 2010–2019

Out of 33 cancer types occurring among 15-49-year-olds considered in this analysis, fourteen cancer types had significantly increasing incidence rates in the most recent time period in at least one early onset age group, and 18 cancer types had significantly decreasing incidence rates

NCI researchers estimated US cancer incidence for 2010–2019 and mortality for 2010–2022 across 33 cancer types. Incidence rose for 14 types in at least one early-onset age group (15–29, 30–39 or 40–49) and fell for 18. The largest absolute increases in 2019 over the numbers expected from 2010 rates were in female breast (4,834 additional cancers), colorectal (2,099), kidney (1,793) and uterine cancer (1,209). Mortality did not rise for most cancers; colorectal, uterine and testicular cancer mortality rose in early-onset groups. The authors wrote that the drivers could include established and new causes and increased detection. The databases held no risk-factor data.

Source
Meredith S. Shiels et al., National Cancer Institute; Cancer Discovery
Date
8 May 2025 (online)
Quoted from
Results, "Overall trends in early onset cancer incidence rates" (author manuscript text via NCBI PMC, PMC12226221)
Grade
Peer-reviewed
Document
https://doi.org/10.1158/2159-8290.CD-24-1678
Accessed
2026-11-09
Cited by
Findings citing this exhibit
Note
The count of 33 types and the absence of risk-factor data come from the NIH release and its coverage.

Cited by

Finding MED-8.1
Peer-reviewed Between 2010 and 2019, incidence rose for 14 of 33 cancer types in at least one US age group under 50. Death rates also rose in those age groups for colorectal and uterine cancer.
Finding MED-8.3
Open question Colorectal cancers diagnosed before age 40 carried the mutational signature of a bacterial toxin, colibactin, 3.3 times as often as those diagnosed after 70. The cause of the rise in early-onset cancer has not been established.